I have always enjoyed being the underdog and upsetting the odds on most of my Football Manager saves. In this unique challenge, I will be taking control of AZ Alkmaar 2 time winners of the Eredivisie and runners-up of the UEFA Cup, but there’s a twist!

Moneyball guru Billy Beane bought a minority share of AZ and is looking to apply the use of statistical data to out-smart the bigger clubs in the league like he has done in Baseball and some other football clubs. I will be using this model and applying a more unique touch to transform AZ’s fortunes, not just financially off the pitch but also on the pitch. Domestically, eight Dutch clubs have a bigger ground than AZ, who are dwarfed by Ajax, PSV and Feyenoord. AZ have typically finished behind the top 3 and had the odd season where they topped them but this has not been a consistent theme. 

The Aim & Vision for this save is to:

• Have a strong financial stance which will help with future developments such as stadium expansion, training ground developments etc 
• Outsmart the bigger clubs in the transfer market by always profiting in transfers season on season 
• Eventually become a dominating force in the Netherlands and boost the coefficient rankings for the league 
• Have the best youth academy in the country and compete with the teams around the world (Topping Ajax will be one big challenge) 

The recruitment model will be strategic and well thought out with good planning. Here are some of the principles which will be followed when adhering to the recruitment model:

• Having backfills in line for all positions of the pitch (this will be either via the youth set-up or shortlisting of new signings) 
• Only sign players if they fit the tactical system and if they are required to backfill a player who has been sold or could be sold later down the line
• Accept a bid from a club if this is higher than the player’s current value 
• Not sign any player via a status ie wonderkid, player search, international performances etc 
• There will be no attributes on display within the game so cannot rely on this to sign players 
• Sell players at the right time ie when players approaching the 30s mark to maximise profit
• Buy players under the age of 23 to support the development and maximise potential 
• Only sign players that have been filtered through the moneyball identification system

I wanted to give an example of how we would utilise a backfill. An example is Brighton, who do this very well. They would sign players seasons ahead sometimes, loaning them out to clubs who fit the tactical system and culture and then by the time a key player is sold in that position, this player would slot right in.

Example: Brighton signed Kaoru Mitoma in 2021 and immediately loaned him out to Belgian parent club Union SG

Mitoma was signed for just over £1.8M and then the following season, Trossard was sold to Arsenal for £24M + and by then Mitoma was ready enough to step into the position rather than Brighton panic buying and spending a premium to replace him. 

There is a lot that goes into this strategy but in short, I will need to plan ahead and have a good idea of which players will develop into top players who will end up being purchased by the bigger clubs. 

There will be certain periods of the season when stats/data will need to be reviewed. For example, at the start of the save, there is no data available so this will need to be built up for a good few months before the process can begin. Initially, the team will remain as is for the start of the season, if any player is sold then they will be replaced with a youth team player or worse case a loan signing. 

There will be a few months of the season where the process will kick start ie for the January transfer window, the shortlist process will begin in December. For the summer transfer window, data will start to be reviewed in April/May and shortlisting will be needed to be completed to recruit for the season ahead. There will be a follow-up series to drill down the exact method on how to identify the players and shortlist, but in short, there will be certain stats reviewed per position that I will be looking for and that fits the tactical model.

Now, this is where the uniqueness comes into play. So, I want to analyse untapped markets where I can buy cheap and develop quality players.  For example, I don’t want to be looking at leagues that several other top clubs around the top 5 leagues in Europe are already reviewing for example:

• Brazil
• Argentina
• Norway
• Sweden
• Denmark
• EFL Championship 

The Eredivisie has no registration rules, which means I can review pretty much any league around the world. There will be some listed countries which may appear to be a little more popular in recent times but as they are not the typical leagues that are being tracked by most clubs at our level & above, therefore we are able to take advantage of this. For example, Japan is becoming more popular specifically for clubs such as Celtic but there is such a big market, we can stand out and beat the competition due to our reputational status. However, there are certain countries such as Romania which are yet to be fully exposed. 

I will be focusing on the top-tier leagues for the below countries, any in bold are especially untapped

• Columbia 
• Ecuador 
• Uruguay 
• Serbia
• Poland
• Croatia
• Romania
• Japan
• Iceland 
• Bulgaria
• South Africa

Next Steps:

• Tactical approach confirmed 
• Training schedules developed 
• Hire scouts for the countries mentioned above (Then scout the shortlisted players only which are data-driven)
• Squad planning and preparing for the future 

The next series will go over the tactical approach in more detail, how training will be scheduled according to this and player profiles per position. 

By then, I should be in the position to deep dive into the strategy around data analysis, shortlisting and scouting before adding players to the squad planner view. 

An overview of results/standings will be provided during the series but there will be a big emphasis on showing the details around recruitment, tactical and development strategies. 

Thank you Beth for giving me the platform to write on FM again!

Author: Dhillon